World In 2100 Essay

World In 2100 Essay-10
But in addition to their main Medium projection the UN Population Division are additionally publishing a High and Low variant, which simply assume that the total fertility rates are 0.5 higher and 0.5 lower than the Medium variant by the end of this century in every country.

But in addition to their main Medium projection the UN Population Division are additionally publishing a High and Low variant, which simply assume that the total fertility rates are 0.5 higher and 0.5 lower than the Medium variant by the end of this century in every country.But there are also a number of other institutions that are preparing their own projections of the world population.

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Accordingly, the early developing populations started the transition much earlier than world regions that remained poor for a longer time.

Europeans and Northern Americas reached the replacement rate at a time when fertility only started to decline in Asia and Latin America.

WC-IIASA breaks down the educational structure into the following 6 categories and the table summarizes how the six categories are defined, how they correspond to ISCED 1997, and the main allocation rules the researchers used.

For children younger than 15 years old no educational attainment information is available as most of them are still in the process of education.

The visualization below shows the total fertility rate by the level of development and includes the UN projections through 2100.

Until 1950 the fertility rate in the ‘more developed regions’ had already declined to less than 3 children per woman.A set of influential projections is published by IIASA and the Wittgenstein Centre, which I refer to as the WC-IIASA projections.Projections of the global population are uncertain and much of the uncertainty comes from the fact that we do not know which investments the world will make in those systems that determine mortality and fertility – most importantly in education, as we have just seen.Then in the 1960s the fertility rate in the ‘less developed regions’ started to fall and another decade later the fertility rate in the ‘least developed regions’ followed this decline.The fertility rate of the world was still at 5 children per woman until the mid-1960s.The UN projections for the global population growth rates, which have been produced since the 1950s, have a good track record in projecting the size of the global population as we will show in the last part of this entry.Population growth is driven by three different factors: mortality, fertility, and population momentum.The decline of fertility rates on the other hand, – the number of children per woman – reduces population growth.The global average fertility rate was 5 children per woman until the end of the 1960s and has halved since then.The WC-IIASA projections differ from the work of the United Nations in a number of fundamental ways.The UN projections are taking into account the empirical data on each country’s demography and are building projections based on this quantitative information.


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